Ballenger on 2010

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr> <td valign="top" colspan=2 height=90 BGCOLOR="#0000BF" TEXT="#F7F7FF" bgproperties="fixed" background="044005a0exvipq.gif"> <div> <FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#FFCC33" FACE="Copperplate Gothic Bold" ><A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Eastside Republican Club"><U><B>Home</B></U></A><B>  </B><B> </B></FONT><B>  | </B><B> </B><B> </B><B>  </B><FONT SIZE="5" COLOR="#FFFFFF" FACE="Copperplate Gothic Bold" ><B>Eastside Republican Club</B></FONT></div> <bR> <div> <A HREF="erc_meeting_dates.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Events"><U><B>Events</B></U></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="eastside_republican_review_summary.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="ERC Review"><U><B>ERC Review</B></U></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="michigan_s_13th_district.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Congressional District News"><U><B>Congressional District News</B></U></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="civic___governmental_links.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Links"><U><B>Links</B></U></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="erc_officers.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="About Us"><U><B>About Us</B></U></A></div> <div> </div> </td> </tr><tr> <td valign="top" width=210 BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000"> <bR> <bR> <div> <B>Ballenger on 2010</B></div> <div> <A HREF="link_to_michigan_gop.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Michigan Republicans"><U><B><IMG SRC="05358580.gif" border=0 width="88" height="88" ALT="Michigan GOP" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></B></U></A></div> <div> <A HREF="michigan_s_13th_district.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Congressional District News"><U><I><B>Congressional District News</B></I></U></A></div> <div> <A HREF="east_lansing.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Michigan GOP Convention 2010"><U><I><B>2010 Republican Convention</B></I></U></A></div> <div> <A HREF="erc_testimonials.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="What Theyre Saying About Us"><U><I><B>Read what they've said about us</B></I></U></A></div> <div> <A HREF="erc_meeting_dates.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Events"><U><B><IMG SRC="81b871f0.gif" border=0 width="135" height="31" ALT=">>Events" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></B></U></A></div> </td> <td valign="top" height=390 BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000"> <div>  <A NAME="top_of_page"><IMG BORDER="0" SRC="1x1.gif" HEIGHT="1" ALIGN="bottom" WIDTH="1" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" ></A></div> <div> <I><U>Schuette is Surprise Starter for October Forum</U></I><A HREF="http://www.johnchouinardforstatesenate.com/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.johnchouinardforstatesenate.c"><U><IMG SRC="1a3f3b4c0.jpg" border=0 width="315" height="332" ALT="Bill Ballenger with ERC chairman and Senate candidate John Chouinard. >>Chouinard for Senate" ALIGN="RIGHT" HSPACE="6" VSPACE="4"></U></A></div> <div> <B>Election Expert Ballenger</B></div> <div> <B>Offers 2010 Political Prophesy</B></div> <div> Before Lansing political expert <A HREF="http://www.insidemichiganpolitics.com/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.insidemichiganpolitics.com/"><U>Bill Ballenger</U></A> was able to dazzle the Eastside Republican Forum audience with his laser sharp analysis, <A HREF="http://www.billschuette.com/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.billschuette.com/"><U>Bill Schuette</U></A>, candidate for Michigan Attorney General was handed the microphone for a brief greeting.</div> <div> In the Pointes for a campaign fundraiser, Schuette explained his rationale for running. </div> <div> “I saw a mess in Michigan, and I want to help fix it,” he said.</div> <div> Stressing his law and order stance he said, “I'm running for Attorney General for two reasons: public safety and paychecks.”</div> <div> His reference to paychecks, he said, refers to the Attorney General's duty to issue rulings on statute and on pending laws. Both can be pocketbook issues.</div> <div> “Why vote for me?” he asked.</div> <div> Schuette offered a concise answer, “Skill set.”</div> <div> By that he was pointing to his depth of experience as U.S. Congressman, judge on the Michigan Court of Appeals judge, department director, and State Senator.</div> <div> He added that his convictions and experience make him the right person to continue the challenge to Obamacare filed by the current Attorney General.<A HREF="http://www.billschuette.com/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.billschuette.com/"><U><IMG SRC="1a46c3380.jpg" border=0 width="195" height="312" ALT="Bill Schuette, Attorney General >>More PAC dinner" ALIGN="LEFT" HSPACE="6" VSPACE="4"></U></A></div> <div> Schuette also said that, with him as Attorney General, Michigan would stand with the State of Arizona on border control issues.</div> <div> “If you are fed up with the mess in Lansing, vote for Snyder and Schuette,” he declared before dashing off to his next evening engagement.</div> <div> Presiding at the September 21 Forum was <A HREF="http://www.johnchouinardforstatesenate.com/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.johnchouinardforstatesenate.c"><U>John Chouinard</U></A>, ERC chairman, and also a candidate for Michigan Senate, District 2, which includes the Pointes.</div> <div> Chouinard next turned the Grosse Pointe War Memorial podium over to expert political commentator Bill Ballenger who offered his insight into the November 2, 2010, General Election campaign.</div> <div> <I><B>Ballenger's Insight</B></I></div> <div> Without hedging, Ballenger predicted, “For Michigan Republicans, this year will be the best year for Republicans since at least 2004.”</div> <div> The Lansing expert told the overflow crowd, “It's your chance to get it back.”</div> <div> Putting the campaign in perspective, Ballenger observed that in 2010, Michigan would not see a race for U.S. President or the U.S. Senate. “But it's a huge year for state government,” he said.</div> <div> “This will be only the second time since 1946 when all of Michigan's constitutional offices will be open -- that is, there will be no incumbent running.”</div> <div> Even more amazing, he explained, for the first time in 80 years there is no sitting governor or lieutenant governor running for governor.</div> <div> “The last time voters faced this situation was 1930,” he said.</div> <DIV ALIGN="LEFT"></DIV> <div> <TABLE BORDER="0" CELLPADDING="10" CELLSPACING="1" WIDTH="218" BORDERCOLORLIGHT="#C0C0C0" BORDERCOLORDARK="#808080" FRAME="VOID" RULES="NONE" ALIGN="RIGHT" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" > <tR> <tD VALIGN=TOP BGCOLOR=#FFFF80 HEIGHT= 262 WIDTH="196"><div> <I><B>View Your Sample Michigan Ballot</B></I></div> <div> The Michigan Voter Information Center offers registration and election assistance, including a look at a sample of your local ballot.</div> <div> With the voter information center, voters can:</div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c002d00a000000000.gif" HEIGHT="11" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">View your sample ballot</div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c002d00a000000000.gif" HEIGHT="11" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">Determine whether or not you're registered</div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c002d00a000000000.gif" HEIGHT="11" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">Find your polling location</div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c002d00a000000000.gif" HEIGHT="11" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">Learn to use voting equipment</div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c002d00a000000000.gif" HEIGHT="11" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">Find answers to frequently asked questions</div> <div> Use one of two search options for registration information, or to view a sample ballot. >><A HREF="https://webapps.sos.state.mi.us/mivote/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="https://webapps.sos.state.mi.us/mivote/"><U><I>Michigan Votes</I></U></A>.</div> </tD> </tR> </TABLE></div> <div> “There is nobody on the ballot with that kind of experience -- it's all up for grabs,” Ballenger noted.</div> <div> In addition, because of a declining Michigan population, this will be the last year Michigan will elect 15 members to the U.S. House of Representatives. Before the 2012 congressional elections, districts will be redrawn and Michigan's representation in Congress will drop to 14.</div> <div> Michigan's current congressional delegation is composed of eight Democrats and seven Republicans. But due to retirements, he said, there would be at least four new faces.</div> <div> Ballenger predicted that the balance is likely to change in favor of the GOP.</div> <div> <I><B>State Legislature</B></I></div> <div> Currently, Republicans hold a 22 to 16 majority in the Michigan Senate, while the State House is split the other way with 65 Democrats and 42 Republicans.</div> <div> Ballenger's analysis indicates that big changes are in store for the legislature. He said that not only is the entire Michigan House of Representatives up for election, 15 incumbents eligible for another term have decided not to run.</div> <div> Consequently, Ballenger sees 2010 as a year when Republicans could sweep the ballot. He cautioned, however, that in a recent election in which Republican candidates for Attorney General and Secretary of State won stunning victories, the same voters gave Granholm a 51% edge for governor.</div> <div> “Some people in Lansing think the Republicans have a chance to take control of the House,” he said. But if history is any indication, it will be an uphill battle to take control of the State House.</div> <div> As a consequence of the Obama victory in 2008, Ballenger offered this surprising fact: “Republican representation in the State House is now the third weakest since the Civil War.”</div> <div> So there is a big hill to climb. Ballenger then pointed to an added challenge.</div> <div> He asked, “Since 1996, how many State House incumbents have been knocked off?”</div> <div> The wizard of Michigan electoral statistics answered his own question, “Only one!”</div> <div> Still, he said, “This election will result in a more evenly divided House because Republicans will either maintain or pickup seats.”</div> <div> In the Michigan Senate, 38 seats will be on the ballot. Of those, only nine have incumbents running for reelection, while 29 are “open” seats.</div> <div> And history is on the Republican's side. He noted the GOP has now controlled that body for 27 straight years.</div> <div> <I><B>Michigan Supreme Court</B></I></div> <div> Another big race this year is that for a majority on the Michigan Supreme Court.</div> <div> “We have a rather strange system of electing our Supreme Court justices,” he joked.</div> <div> “In Michigan, candidates for the Supreme Court, after being nominated by a political party, 'magically' divest themselves of a party label and run on the non-partisan portion of the ballot!”</div> <div> This year there are two Republican and two Democrat court nominees running for two court positions. In addition, he said, one minor party candidate will be on the court ballot.</div> <div> <A HREF="http://justicebobyoung.com/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://justicebobyoung.com/"><U>Justice Bob Young</U></A>, an incumbent, and <A HREF="http://www.marybethkellyforjustice.com/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.marybethkellyforjustice.com/"><U>Judge Mary Beth Kelly</U></A> are the Republicans' two nominees.</div> <div> With the recent resignation of Justice Weaver, a nominal Republican, and appointment of her replacement by the Democrat Governor, he said the Democrats control the Michigan Supreme Court for the first time in a dozen years.</div> <div> What makes this election so crucial, he said, is that redistricting will take place in response to the 2010 U.S. Census, making control more important than usual. The Court will have the last word in any disagreement over district boundary lines.</div> <div> Ballenger noted that in the past 45 years, no matter what boundaries are drawn, the plan has always ended up being challenged in the courts.</div> <div> He said he has never seen a Supreme Court decision in such cases that has been contrary to the boundaries proposed by the party with the Court majority.</div> <div> But Democrat control of the Court would continue, he said, unless Republican-backed candidates are able to finish first and second in November's five-way race for the Court. On the other hand, Democrats could maintain their majority by merely coming in second place, thus winning just one of the two Court seats.</div> <div> Although September polls show a large number of undecided voters, Ballenger reports the good news for Republicans is that Kelly and Young are leading the pack.</div> <div> <I><B>Other Races</B></I></div> <div> In other races, Ballenger said some seats on each of the three university boards are up for election this year, in addition to one seat on the State Board of Education.</div> <div> Ballenger said that Michigan is the only state in the U.S. that elects all of these people, and today, Democrats control all four boards.</div> <div> Further, Michigan voters will elect 125 judges, consider <A HREF="http://www.crcmich.org/election/index.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.crcmich.org/election/index.ht"><U>two constitutional proposals</U></A>, elect school boards, and decide on local millage proposals.</div> <div> <I><B>Ballot Proposals</B></I></div> <div> Proposal 10-1 calls for a constitutional convention for the purpose of drafting a general revision of the state constitution. In accordance with the Michigan Constitution, this proposal must come before voters every 16 years. Ballenger predicts it will be soundly defeated just as it was in 1978 and 1994.</div> <div> Voters, he said, will realize that despite a desire to change our Constitution, there is no guarantee that changes would make it better. Added to that prospect, he observed, is the multimillion-dollar price tag that would be attached to the convention process.</div> <div> Ballenger said the second ballot proposal, Proposal 10-2, is referred to as the “Kwame Kilpatrick amendment.” It would amend the state constitution to prohibit certain felons from holding elective office and specified types of public employment positions.</div> <div> He sees this proposal easily passing. </div> <DIV ALIGN="LEFT"></DIV> <div> >><A HREF="https://webapps.sos.state.mi.us/mivote/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="https://webapps.sos.state.mi.us/mivote/"><U><I>View Your Sample Ballot</I></U></A>.</div> <div> <I><B>Bill Ballenger Credentials</B></I></div> <div> Involved in Michigan political circles for over three decades, Ballenger is a recognized authority on Michigan government and politics. Launched in 1987, his <A HREF="http://www.insidemichiganpolitics.com/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.insidemichiganpolitics.com/"><U><I>Inside Michigan Politics</I></U></A> newsletter is considered must-read material for Michigan's business and political leaders, and he is a regular commentator and political analyst for broadcast outlets in Detroit and Lansing.</div> <div> As a commentator, Ballenger is a prolific writer and analyst of the Michigan political landscape. Yet over the years, Ballenger, himself, has been the subject of stories. In one such story, the <I>Detroit News</I> dubbed him "Michigan's undisputed Crown Prince of Pundits."</div> <div> Born in Flint, Michigan, Ballenger is a former state representative, state senator, state racing commissioner, and director of the Michigan Department of Licensing & Regulation. Ballenger also served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Department of Health, Education & Welfare in the administration of Pres. Gerald R. Ford.</div> <div> Ballenger holds a B.A. degree <I>magna cum laude</I> from Princeton University, and a master's degree in public administration from Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government. As a visiting Adjunct Professor, he has taught at the University of Michigan/Flint; in both Lyman Briggs and Justin Morrill Colleges at Michigan State University; and in the public administration program of Western Michigan University.</div> <div> The public is always invited to attend ERC forums.</div> <DIV ALIGN="LEFT"></DIV> <div> <A HREF="#top_of_page" TITLE="Ballenger on 2010"><U>back to top</U></A></div> </td> </tr></table></body>