Ballenger Perspective

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr> <td valign="top" colspan=2 height=90 BGCOLOR="#0000BF" TEXT="#F7F7FF" bgproperties="fixed" background="044005a0exvipq.gif"> <div> <FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#FFCC33" FACE="Copperplate Gothic Bold" ><A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Eastside Republican Club"><U><B>Home</B></U></A><B>  </B><B> </B></FONT><B>  | </B><B> </B><B> </B><B>  </B><FONT SIZE="5" COLOR="#FFFFFF" FACE="Copperplate Gothic Bold" ><B>Eastside Republican Club</B></FONT></div> <bR> <div> <A HREF="erc_meeting_dates.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Events"><U><B>Events</B></U></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="eastside_republican_review_summary.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="ERC Review"><U><B>ERC Review</B></U></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="michigan_s_13th_district.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Congressional District News"><U><B>Congressional District News</B></U></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="civic___governmental_links.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Links"><U><B>Links</B></U></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="erc_officers.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="About Us"><U><B>About Us</B></U></A></div> <div> </div> </td> </tr><tr> <td valign="top" width=210 BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000"> <bR> <bR> <div> <B>Ballenger Perspective</B></div> <div> <A HREF="link_to_michigan_gop.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Michigan Republicans"><U><B><IMG SRC="05358580.gif" border=0 width="88" height="88" ALT="Michigan GOP" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></B></U></A></div> <div> <A HREF="http://www.RegisterRepublicans.com/vr_forms.asp" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.RegisterRepublicans.com/vr_fo"><U><I><B>Voter Registration Forms</B></I></U></A></div> <div> <A HREF="michigan_s_13th_district.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Congressional District News"><U><I><B>Congressional District News</B></I></U></A></div> <div> <A HREF="erc_testimonials.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="What Theyre Saying About Us"><U><I><B>Read what they've said about us</B></I></U></A></div> <div> <A HREF="erc_meeting_dates.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Events"><U><B><IMG SRC="81b871f0.gif" border=0 width="135" height="31" ALT=">>Events" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></B></U></A></div> </td> <td valign="top" height=390 BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000"> <div>  <A NAME="top_of_page"><IMG BORDER="0" SRC="1x1.gif" HEIGHT="1" ALIGN="bottom" WIDTH="1" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" ></A></div> <div> <I><U>Michigan Townships Rule!</U></I></div> <div> <B>2004 Election Looking Good for GOP</B></div> <div> <B>Although Lasting Impact May Be Overstated</B></div> <div> “I love to come here,” proclaimed political expert, Bill Ballenger, opening his September 21, 2004, remarks to the Eastside Republican Club forum at the Grosse Pointe War Memorial. His observations on the 2004 general election kicked off the ERC fall schedule.<IMG SRC="f5a2c830.jpg" border=0 width="300" height="387" ALT="Bill Ballenger of Inside Michigan Politics at September ERC Forum" ALIGN="RIGHT" HSPACE="6" VSPACE="2"></div> <div> Ballenger reported the latest <A HREF="http://www.freep.com/news/statewire/sw104425_20040920.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.freep.com/news/statewire/sw10"><U>EPIC/MRA poll</U></A> shows likely voters swinging to Bush in Michigan with a Bush victory now within the +/- 4% margin of error. September results show the Kerry edge at 48% to 44% for Bush, compared to August results when the Democrat led 49% to 42%.</div> <div> "I have my own Michigan poll in the field right now," he said. >><A HREF="http://www.detnews.com/2004/politics/0409/28/politics-287080.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.detnews.com/2004/politics/040"><U><I>Results of poll commissioned by Inside Michigan Politics</I></U></A><I>.</I></div> <div> Discounting the local “coattail” effect of any landslide victory at the top of the ticket, Ballenger said, “The days of yore are gone.” The political expert observed that Michigan incumbents are seldom vulnerable. “In the last eight years, only one incumbent has lost in a general election,” he said.</div> <div> Ballenger noted that no change in Michigan's balance of power will result from the November election, and that Republicans could even increase their majority in the State House.</div> <div> <B>2004 Election No 'Watershed'</B></div> <div> Despite election fever gripping our autumn headlines, Ballenger asserted, “This is not a particularly important political year.” He backed up his claim by pointing out that even if Kerry should win in November, “The idea that he could implement even 10% of his ideas is balderdash.”</div> <div> Ballenger noted that over the next four years with one House of Congress, maybe both, controlled by his opposition party, “Kerry will not be able to do anything he is talking about!”</div> <div> He said that a second Bush administration would press to reduce the deficit, and focus on homeland security. On the topic of judicial appointments, he said that even if Kerry were elected Republicans would likely take a page out the recent Democrat playbook and continue the judicial gridlock.</div> <div> According to Ballenger, whatever the outcome of the presidential race, 2004 will not be a watershed year on the order of the high stakes 1964 contest between Pres. Lyndon Johnson and Barry Goldwater, or the 1980 battle between Pres. Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan.</div> <div> This is especially true in the State of Michigan where there is no 2004 race for Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, or U.S. Senate. There are not even any Michigan State Senate seats on the ballot this year.</div> <div> Ballenger, while acknowledging there are some exciting State House races, pointed out there will be no change in Republican control of the 110-member House. With Republicans holding their biggest majority -- 63 to 46, plus one vacancy -- since the early years of the Eisenhower administration, any loss of that chamber would require that Democrats gain a net of 10 seats. “It ain't going to happen!” Ballenger said.</div> <div> Even though two of seven Michigan Supreme Court seats are on the November ballot, Ballenger confirmed, “Conservatives will continue to dominate, regardless of the outcome.” Ballenger explained that is because Republicans already have a 5/2 majority, and one incumbent from each camp is up for reelection. >><A HREF="http://www.sospublius.org/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.sospublius.org/"><U><I>View your November ballot</I></U></A><I>.</I></div> <div> <B>Ballot Decisions Test Democracy</B></div> <div> Ballenger said, “The big thing about elections in Michigan is in terms of sheer quantity.” He commented, “There are more races on the ballot than in any other state in the country.”</div> <div> <TABLE BORDER="0" CELLPADDING="4" CELLSPACING="1" WIDTH="216" BORDERCOLORLIGHT="#C0C0C0" BORDERCOLORDARK="#808080" FRAME="BOX" RULES="ALL" ALIGN="LEFT" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" BGCOLOR=#FFFF80 > <tR> <tD VALIGN=CENTER HEIGHT= 610 WIDTH="206"><div> <B>Ballenger the Prolific Pundit</B></div> <div> As a commentator, Ballenger is a prolific writer and analyst of the Michigan political landscape. Yet over the years, he has been the subject of stories written about him. In one such story, the <I>Detroit News</I> dubbed Ballenger "Michigan's undisputed Crown Prince of Pundits."</div> <div> In addition to editing and publishing the <I>"</I><A HREF="http://www.insidemichiganpolitics.com/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.insidemichiganpolitics.com/"><U><I>Inside Michigan Politics</I></U></A><I>"</I> newsletter, Ballenger is host of his own <A HREF="http://www.insidemichiganpolitics.com/wkar.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.insidemichiganpolitics.com/wk"><U>radio show</U></A>, gives speeches, and is frequently quoted in the press.</div> <div> Ballenger also fills <A HREF="http://www.chsbs.cmich.edu/Political_Science/faculty/BALLENGER.HTM" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.chsbs.cmich.edu/Political_Sci"><U>Central Michigan University's</U></A> Robert and Marjorie Griffin endowed chair in American government, named for two CMU alumni who established the endowed fund. At CMU he teaches a seminar course, "Michigan Politics and Public Policy," and coordinates special projects to increase awareness of state politics among students and the university community.</div> <div> Born in Flint, Michigan, Ballenger is a former state representative, state senator, state racing commissioner, and director of the Michigan Department of Licensing & Regulation. Ballenger also served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Department of Health, Education & Welfare in the administration of Pres. Gerald R. Ford.</div> <div> Ballenger holds a B.A. degree <I>magna cum laude</I> from Princeton University, and a master's degree in public administration from Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government. As a visiting Adjunct Professor, he has taught at the University of Michigan/Flint; in both Lyman Briggs and Justin Morrill Colleges at Michigan State University; and in the public administration program of Western Michigan University.</div> </tD> </tR> </TABLE></div> <div> He said that throughout Michigan, “There are 8,000 offices up for election this year, double the number in any other state.” This includes Commissioners in 1,242 Townships, 699 County Commissioners, 110 State Representatives, eight statewide education officials, and nearly 500 countywide races. Then there are the elected judicial positions.</div> <div> Ballenger reminded his audience, “Michigan is the only state in the country with statewide elections for education posts.” He listed the statewide races for the State Board of Education, and the governing bodies for three public universities: Wayne State, Michigan State, and the University of Michigan.</div> <div> Predicting voter approval of the two statewide ballot questions, Ballenger summarized proposed amendments to the Michigan State Constitution. The first would require prior voter approval for any expansion of gambling in the state. Second is the amendment that would specify what can be recognized as a “marriage or similar union.”</div> <div> <B>Townships Gaining Michigan Muscle</B></div> <div> Ballenger pointed out that the urban/rural balance of power has radically shifted in the state due to the “mass exodus” from cities. For the first time in nearly 80 years, he observed, “A majority of the members of each chamber represent districts in which Township population is in the majority.”</div> <div> Speaking of Detroit's population decline from 1,800,000 to 900,000, he said, “Detroit's 50% population loss is more than any other city in the Western Hemisphere!”</div> <div> <B>Glamorous, Weak Guv</B></div> <div> He said, “Governor Granholm is a weak governor.” Referring to the State Senate, House, Attorney General, Supreme Court, and Secretary of State, Ballenger said, “Constitutionally and statutorily, she is surrounded by a sea of Republicans.” He added, “She has no background or skills to come in [to office] like George Romney, and be bold and earn reelection twice.”</div> <div> Yet Ballenger conceded, “Granholm is very popular and glamorous.”</div> <div> He noted what is becoming more evident to observers, “She can talk only so long to mask her basic inability to make things happen. The elephant in the room is this--we have a lightweight governor. She can't point to anything she has done. Balancing the budget is no big trick. It is constitutionally mandated, and is always balanced.”</div> <div> “After November, people will begin to ask of Granholm, `What have you done for us lately, or at all?' Her administration has been one of changing her mind and appointing commissions,” he said.</div> <div> Following Ballenger's talks, the ERC voted to extend its endorsement to a number of candidates in the General Election. >><I>See endorsements</I><I>.</I></div> <DIV ALIGN="LEFT"></DIV> <div> <A HREF="#top_of_page" TITLE="Ballenger Perspective"><U>back to top</U></A></div> </td> </tr></table></body>